Market price are be predicted every day by self-protective and disruptive actions taken by MMs trading high-volume block trades for institutional investors managing their billion-dollar equity investment portfolios.
Records of market results as a result of such forecasts make their trends visually trackable and their rewards and risk exposures explicit in graphical form. The images below are the results of traded forecasts, not hopeful tools for guessing what might happen later. Although there is no guarantee of the future, examples in hand are much better than assertive hypotheses without evidence.
Additionally, the results follow identical strategic disciplines across all stocks, making forecast expectations directly comparable. This way, personal preferences can be carefully tracked.
The main stock of interest in this article is Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENPH).
“Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers microinverters based on semiconductors, which convert energy at the module level, and combine with its proprietary network and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control services.It also offers AC battery storage systems, gateway communication system Envoy and a cloud-based monitoring service Enlighten, as well as other accessories. The company sells its solutions to solar distributors; and directly to large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners and owners, as well than through its legacy product upgrade program or online store Enphase Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont , in California .” – Source: Yahoo Finance
We start by comparing reward prospects and risk exposures.
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The expected rewards for these securities are the largest gains over the current market closing price, which is worth protecting short positions. Their measurement is on the horizontal green scale.
The risk dimension is that of actual price declines at their most extreme while being held in the previous pursuit of upward rewards similar to those currently seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale.
Both scales are percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose current risk exposure exceeds its reward outlook will be above the dotted diagonal line. The attractive buying capital gain issues are found in the down and right directions.
Our main interest is the ENPH on site . A standard “market index” of reward~risk trade-offs is offered by SPY at . Most attractive (to own) by this Figure 1 the view can be ACLS to . But other considerations in Figure 3 will show why this may not be the case.
Alternate Actions Feature Comparison: Utilities
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The Figure 2 map provides a good parallel with the “business as usual” that permeated the auto industry before Tesla (TSLA). 21st century stock markets thrive on technological advancements, but there are often laggards.
How do you want your capital to behave, scared? In this case, you may miss the +20%+ short-term capital gain of the ENPH.
The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every short-term stock investment. There are other aspects of comparison that this chart sometimes doesn’t communicate well, especially when broad market outlooks like SPY’s are involved, as Figure 2 does at location . And where questions of “probability” are present, other comparative tables, such as Figure 3, may be helpful.
The yellow highlighting of table cells emphasizes factors important to stock valuations and ENPH stock, the most promising near capital gain as ranked in the column [R]. Filling pink cells indicates inadequate proportions of competitive critical performance requirements, as in [T] where [F] Risk exposure exceeds [E] Reward opportunity.
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Price range predictions implied by today’s trading activity are in columns [B] and [C]usually surrounding the day’s closing price [D]. They produce a measure of risk and reward that we call the Range Index [G]the percentage of forecast range B to C that falls between D and C.
Today’s G’s are used for the last 5 years of each stock’s daily forecast history [M] count and average before [L] experiences. Less than 20 L or a history of Ms of less than 3 years are considered statistically insufficient.
[H] indicates what percentage of L positions were profitably completed, either at prices above the range or at the market close above the next day’s entry costs of the expected closing prices. The net realization of all the L’s is shown in [I].
[I] fractions are weighted by H and 100-H in [O, P, & Q] suitably conditioned by [J] to provide a ranking of investments [R] in CAGR units of basis points per day.
The parade of [H] profitable positions at 10 out of 11 is excellent.
Comparable data for the S&P 500 Market Index ETF and for the more than 3,000 other stocks with comparable price forecasts give perspective to the results of the Covid stock group. The highest ranked issues in this population support ENPH’s excellent CAGR score.
Recent trends in Price Interval Forecasts for the ENPH
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This is not a typical “technical analysis chart” of simple historical observations (only). Instead, it represents the Daily Market-Maker price range forecast updates implied by real-time live real capital commitments.
Its communicative value is present here through visual comparisons of the proportions of upward and downward price change expectations on each forecast date. Expectations of the market maker community, as influenced by the actions of interested and involved institutional investors.
These forecasts are typically resolved in time horizons of less than six months, and often in two months or less. This one indicates that out of the 189 prior predictions like today’s, about 10 out of 11 were profitable, made in 27 market days (less than 6 weeks) profitably with average gains of +21.9% , a CAGR of 559%. No promises, just fun with the story.
Comparison of the performance of Market Makers forecasts in the short term for Enphase Energy with similar predictions of other technologically active stocks being pursued by investor referencing, it seems clear that this stock may be an attractive investment choice for investors pursuing short-term capital gain strategies.