CACI International: InfoTech with U.S. Government Offers Equity Capital Gains (NYSE: CACI)

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Investment thesis

Think back to the changes that your grandparents have experienced since their childhood: atomic power, radio replaced by television, discovery of DNA biology, evolution of the internet, computerized cordless telephones…

Technological progress has not slowed down, on the contrary it seems to be increasing and we strive to stay up to date. As investors, our progress depends even more on anticipating future technological developments and human behavior in an increasingly complex environment.

The forecasters who can help us are the pros who every day “fry the fish” that we want to “eat” in our investment portfolios. They have to contend with huge and erratic anticipation appetites from “institutions” with multi-billion dollar portfolios demanding transactions to fit their current anticipation of technology. Expectations likely to emerge soon for us ten or hundred stock investors, maintaining the continued demands for open interest seen in exchange bids and offer quotes.

These professionals employ well-trained and knowledgeable researchers and information gatherers around the clock, anticipating the benefits and active worldwide (24/7, 365 days a year) needed to perform their essential research tasks. market creation and transaction.

But they do not want us in front of them in the lines of buying and selling appetites which they intend to take advantage of by their disturbances. This is what pays their rents and pensions and those of their employees. Thus, efficient market transactions must be fast and clean.

What makes them so are “insurance” speculators of stock price movement who are willing to protect market makers during the temporary risks that need to be taken during periods of brief disruption. The costs of this protection reveal the future price expectations of this community, on both sides of each transaction.

For these derived price predictions, we rely on how active markets subsequently reward or punish the expectations of past experiences. It is the job of this article to present alternative investment choices for the uncertain near future of the next 3-5 months.

Description of the lead investment candidate

Today’s article is about CACI International Inc (New York stock market :NYSE: CACI):

CACI International Inc, together with its subsidiaries, provides expertise and technology to corporate and mission clients in support of national security and government modernization/transformation missions in the intelligence, defense and federal civilian sectors. It operates in two segments, Domestic Operations and International Operations. The company designs, implements, protects and manages secure enterprise IT solutions. Additionally, the company provides enterprise cloud solutions for classified and unclassified networks; and intelligence support that ensures continuous progress in collection, analysis and dissemination to optimize decision-making. CACI International Inc was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

Source: Yahoo finance

street analyst estimates

Yahoo finance

Present the return and risk prospects of alternative investments

Figure 1

MM coverage predictions

(Used with permission.)

The expected rewards for these securities are the largest gains over the current market closing price, which is worth protecting short positions. Their measurement is on the horizontal green scale.

The risk dimension is that of actual price declines at their most extreme while being held in the previous pursuit of upward rewards similar to those currently seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale.

Both scales are percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose current risk exposure exceeds its reward outlook will be above the dotted diagonal line. The attractive buying capital gain issues are found in the down and right directions.

Our main interest is there in CACI at the location [3]. A standard “market index” of reward~risk trade-offs is offered by SPY at [4]. Most attractive (to own) by this Figure 1 view is CACI at location [3].

Most of these investment alternatives echo CACI’s concern for national and international intelligence support work. The outlook for the investment industry in the current reactions of fairly modest upside prospects (particularly in SPY) while still rejecting the outlook for downside price risk exposure on the vertical risk scale is worth discussing. be taken into account in terms of capital allocation. The reason for having cash available for timely reinvestment is perhaps best at hand now as others prepare to join the reinvestment line.

Comparison of characteristics of alternative investment stocks

The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every short-term stock investment. There are other aspects of comparison that this chart sometimes doesn’t communicate well, especially when broad market outlooks like SPY’s are involved. When questions about “likelihood” are present, other comparative tables, such as Figure 2, may be helpful.

The yellow highlighting of table cells emphasizes factors important to security valuations and the CACI of the security, the most promising quasi-capital gain as ranked in the column [R]. Filling pink cells indicates inadequate proportions of competitive critical performance requirements, as in [H], [L-N] and [T].

Figure 2

detailed comparative data

The price ranges implied by the day’s trading activity are in columns [B] and [C]usually surrounding the day’s closing price [D]. They produce a measure of risk and reward that we call the Range Index [G]the percentage of forecast range B to C that falls between D and C.

Today’s G’s are used for the last 5 years of each stock’s daily forecast history [M] count and average before [L] experiences. Less than 20 G or a shorter history of M is considered statistically insufficient.

[H] indicates what percentage of L positions were profitably completed, either at prices above the range or at the market close above the next day’s entry costs of the expected closing prices. The net realization of all the L’s is shown in [ I ].

[ I ] fractions are weighted by H and 100-H in [O,P, & Q] suitably conditioned by [J] to provide a ranking of investments [R] in CAGR units of basis points per day.

The pink cell highlight provides fatal investment valuation conditions for several candidates, including the occasional market index ETF SPY. Additional market perspective is provided by the more than 3,000 stocks for which price range predictions are available. They currently suggest that while the market rally is underway, it is still far from generally attractive.

On the other hand, the R column scores for CACI and the top 20 predicted populations support the lead candidate’s competitive ability and note the presence of several other demonstrated prospects.

Recent trends in Price Interval Forecast for CACI

picture 3

daily forecast update trends

(Used with permission.)

This IS NOT a typical “technical analysis chart” of simple historical observations (only). Instead, it represents the Daily Market-Maker price range forecast updates implied by real-time live real capital commitments. Its communicative value is present here by visual comparisons at each forecast date of the proportions of upward and downward price change anticipations by the community of market makers, influenced by the actions of a community of investors. interested and involved institutions.

These forecasts are typically resolved in time horizons of less than six months, and often in two months or less. This one indicates that out of the previous 20 forecasts like today’s, most were realized in 43 market days (9 weeks) in a profitable manner with +16% average earnings, a CAGR of + 102%. No promises, just fun with the story.

Key takeaway for investors

Comparison of the performance of Market Makers forecasts in the short term for CACI International Inc. with similar predictions of other technologically active stocks being pursued by investor referencing, it seems clear that this stock may be an attractive investment choice for investors pursuing short-term capital gain strategies.

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